نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.
2 دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.
3 استادیار برنامهریزی شهری و منطقهای، دانشکده معماری و شهرسازی، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران.
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Every spatial system, including rural settlements, is subject to continuous transformation and change due to various factors and dynamic forces. Among these, peri-urban rural settlements (particularly around metropolises) have undergone more profound changes compared to other settlements. In recent decades, the unplanned growth and expansion of such settlements, along with their specific transformations, have evolved into a kind of problem or issue, to the extent that legal regulations and relevant experts have been unable to control it. Despite various studies and plans in the rural domain, life in these settlements faces numerous challenges. Typically, in planning, the exclusive focus on economic aspects, weakness in attention to long-term programs, reliance on superficial development plans, etc., have led to the neglect of global and national macro-political, economic, and socio-cultural transformations that could contribute to the restructuring of rural spaces. Failure to anticipate these transformations and to take necessary measures to mitigate their negative impacts has added to the existing challenges in villages. This issue increasingly highlights the need for a comprehensive and sustainable approach to rural planning. Therefore, the present study, considering the necessity of foresight in rural planning (with emphasis on the Shahriar District), seeks to formulate resilient strategies for the spatial development of rural settlements in the Shahriar District based on a scenario-oriented foresight approach. The research method was qualitative, based on semi-structured interviews and group discussions with 30 participants (experts, officials, and local residents) selected through snowball sampling until theoretical saturation was reached. Data were analyzed using ATLAS.ti software (coding), MicMac (cross-impact analysis), and ScenarioWizard (scenario design). Based on the cross-impact analysis, six key drivers were identified, the most important of which were “weak institutional capacities” with an influence score of 47 and “power rent-seeking” with a score of 43. According to the findings based on the drivers, three scenarios for the future spatial development of rural settlements in the Shahriar District can be envisioned: sustainable, fragile, and unsustainable development. The proposed resilient strategies are presented within nine axes, including integrated territorial governance, optimal population distribution, land use organization, development of hard and soft infrastructure, organization of business space, development of sectoral linkages, reform of legal-institutional structures, development of decentralized spatial organization, and optimization of natural resource utilization. These strategies have the highest feasibility within the sustainable scenario. As a practical recommendation, strengthening cross-sectoral cooperation, revising laws to suit peri-urban conditions, and establishing an integrated monitoring system are essential for the successful implementation of the strategies.
کلیدواژهها English
