Investigating the factors affecting the import demand of livestock inputs in Iran and its effect on the country's villages

Biria, Soheila; Fakour, Ali

doi:10.22048/rdsj.2024.462650.2184

Investigating the factors affecting the import demand of livestock inputs in Iran and its effect on the country's villages

Document Type : Original Research

Authors

Soheila Biria ¹

Ali Fakour ²

¹ Member of the faculty of the Office of Higher Education Extension, Ministry of Science, Research and Technology, Iran

² • Researcher, Faculty and Research Institute of Resistance Economy, Imam Hossein University (PBUH)

https://doi.org/10.22048/rdsj.2024.462650.2184

Abstract

Domestic production of livestock inputs is done in villages. But the heavy costs of animal feed production and the droughts of recent years have made domestic production of these products difficult. Since the production of livestock inputs, especially corn, is very water-intensive, the cultivation of these products inside the country is currently not cost-effective, and its import is cost-effective to meet domestic needs. This has caused an increase in the demand for livestock inputs in recent years. Therefore, it is very important to investigate the factors affecting the import of these inputs and its impact on the villages. In this way, it is possible to choose a suitable strategy for importing livestock inputs. Therefore, in this research, the factors affecting the import of livestock inputs and its impact on the country's villages are analyzed. For this purpose, the import of livestock corn and soybean meal from the 4 target countries from which the most imports were made has been investigated. The necessary statistics and information have been collected through the statistics of the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad, Iran Customs, Iran Statistics Center, Central Bank of Iran and other library sources. According to the econometric issues between economic variables, panel data method has been used in the period of 2001-2023 to estimate the model. According to the results obtained, the increase in tariff (-%0.051), relative price (-%0.076), domestic production of Soybean meal (-%1.95), real exchange rate (-%3.685), real exchange rate fluctuations (-%1.824) and sanctions (-%1.351) have caused a decrease in import demand, and oil income (%0.093471), Income of villagers (0.524) and gross domestic product (2.933) have had a positive and significant effect on imports. It is suggested that the government should adopt the policy of supporting the producers of these products and through increasing the guaranteed purchase price, implementing key plans such as using as much as possible modified and high-yielding seeds, optimal use of water resources to increase the area under cultivation of water products and increase Efficiency in the consumption of other inputs will encourage the villagers to increase the domestic production of these products.

Keywords

Corn

Exchange Rate

Panel Data

Soybean Meal

Subjects

Agri Eco.

آمارنامه گمرک جمهوری اسلامی ایران. (1400) https://www.irica.ir/web_directory/55335.

آمار و داده‌های بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران،(1400). https://www.cbi.ir/section/1378.aspx

آمارنامه وزارت جهاد کشاورزی. (1400). https://www.jkgc.ir/fa/

پیش‌بهار، الف،. دشتی، ق،. کهنموئی، ر.، حسین زاده، ج،. و راحلی، ح. (1392). بررسی عوامل مؤثربر تقاضا صادرات پسته ایران، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه، (83)12،1-17.

رسولیان،ع،. و حکیم‌پور، ح. (1399). سرمایه گذاری خارجی و رشد تجارت و تأثیر آن بر توسعه روستایی(مورد: خراسان رضوی(، راهبردهای توسعه روستایی، (1)7، 47-37.

شفائیه نجار، ع،. کاوسی کلاشمی، م،. و قلیزاده، ح. (1401). بررسی توسعه یافتگی بخش کشاورزی روستاهای استان‌های شمالی ایران و هلند با استفاده از الگو MARCOS، راهبردهای توسعه روستایی، (1)11، 57-42.

فکور، ع،. ورهرامی، و. و گوهرفر، ش.(1400). تعیین و تخمین عوامل مؤثر بر عرضه صادرات محصولات پتروشیمیایی متانول به مقاصد صادراتی (امارات، ترکیه، چین، هند) با استفاده از الگوی خودرگرسیون برداری با وقفه توزیعی(ARDL) ، راهبرد اقتصادی، (36)10، 109-144. فریادرس، و،. شعبان‌زاده، م. و اسفنجاری کناری، ر. (1395). ارزیابی و تحلیل حساسیت عوامل مؤثر بر تقاضای واردات محصولات کشاورزی ایران با رویکرد شبکه عصبی مصنوعی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه، (93)24، 1-26.

علیزاده، پ،. محمدی، ح،. شاهندسی، ن، سقائیان نژاد، ح،. و پویا، ع.(1398). بررسی عامل‌های مؤثر بر تقاضای واردات انواع گوشت و نهاده‎های دامی ایران، اقتصاد کشاورزی، (3)13، 28-1.

قائد، الف،. احمدی شادمهری،م،. شیرافکن لمسو، ح،. و حسین زاده،.ه.(1401). بررسی تأثیر آزادسازی تجاری و کیفیت نبروی انسانی بر ضریب جینی در مناطق روستایی ایران،راهبردهای توسعه روستایی، (3)10، 285-363.

کرباسی، ع. و علیزاده، پریسا. (1395)، بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر تقاضای واردات خرمای ایران به کشورهای بریکس (رهیافت داده‌های تابلویی)، تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی، (1)8، 21-34.

ملکان، م. (1393). بررسی تابع واردات محصولات کشاورزی برگزیده ایران، رساله کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد.

Arellano, M and Bond, S. (1991). Some test of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies,58(2).277. Https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968

Babic, V. (2009). Income and price elasticities of Croatian trade a panel data approach. Young Economists Seminar to 15^th Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Croatian National Bank.

Farinelli, B., Carter, C. A., Lin, C. Y. C., and Sumner, D. A. (2009). Import demand Brazilian ethanol: A cross-country analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production, 17: 9-17.

Houthakker H.S. and Magee S. P. (1969). Income and price elasticities in world trade. Review of Economics and Statistics. 51: 111-125.

King, A. (1997). From Demand Equations to Two Regimes: The Theoretical Development of Export Models. Bulletin of Economic Research. 49(2): 81-125.

Reimer J. Zheng X. and Gehlhar M. (2012). Export demand elasticity estimation for Major U.S. crops. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 44(4):501–515.

Sahabandu, R. V., and Asanka, P. P. G. D. (2018). Impact analysis of US dollar index volatility on imports and import categories of Sri Lanka. p. 54-59. In 2018 Moratuwa Engineering Research Conference (MERCon), Moratuwa, Sri Lanka.

Supriana, T., Harahap, M A., and Nasution, S K H. (2019). Factors influencing the soyabean import volume in North Sumatrera Province. E arth and Enviromental Science, 260(1):1-7

Tsionas, EG .and Christopoulos, DK. (2004). International Evidence on Import Demand. Empirica, 31(1).43-53.

Zheng Z. Saghaian S. and Reed M. (2012). Factors Affecting the Export Demand for U.S. Pistachios. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review. 15(3), pages 1-16.