Rural Development Strategies

Assessment of Adaptation Strategies of Rural Communities against Dust Storms in Sistan: A Hybrid MCDM Approach

Document Type : Original Research

Author

Mohammad Reza Sasouli

Department of Economics, University of Saravan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Iran

10.22048/rdsj.2026.571024.2266
Abstract
Climate change and hydropolitical tensions have transformed the Sistan region in southeastern Iran into a critical hotspot of dust storms, severely threatening the habitability of border rural communities. Addressing the “stay or leave” dilemma, this study evaluates and ranks adaptation strategies using a hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) approach. Data were obtained from a panel of 15 academic and executive experts in 2025. First, the weights of 4 criteria and 11 sub-criteria were determined using Fuzzy AHP, followed by the prioritization of 6 strategies using Fuzzy TOPSIS. The findings revealed that “Respiratory Health” (weight: 0.161) and “Dependence on Government Support” (weight: 0.140) carried the highest importance. The final ranking indicates a fundamental paradigm shift; “Non-farm Livelihood” ranked first (CCi=0.627), followed by “Circular Migration” (CCi=0.551), whereas “Climate-Smart Agriculture” ranked last (CCi=0.187) due to severe water scarcity. The study concludes that persistence in agrarian models in Sistan represents “maladaptation.” As a practical implication, rather than investing in lost agricultural infrastructure, policymakers should establish tax-free micro-border markets for villagers, develop women’s handicraft cooperatives, and reallocate state funds toward service-sector employment to secure border demographics.

Keywords

Dust Storms
Rural Adaptation
Sistan
Subjects

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