Investigating the effects of the exchange rate increase on the welfare and vulnerability of households: a case study of rural households in Golestan province

Fakhfoori, Hoorieh; Mosavi, Seyed Habibollah; Bagheri, Mehrdad; Azhdari, Somayeh

doi:10.22048/rdsj.2025.381478.2076

Investigating the effects of the exchange rate increase on the welfare and vulnerability of households: a case study of rural households in Golestan province

Document Type : Original Research

Authors

Hoorieh Fakhfoori ¹

Seyed Habibollah Mosavi ²

Mehrdad Bagheri ³

Somayeh Azhdari ⁴

¹ Ms.c. Graduate in Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

² Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran, Iran

³ Assistance Professor of Agricultural Economics & Development Department, University of Payame Noor, Tehran, Iran

⁴ PHD Graduate in Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22048/rdsj.2025.381478.2076

Abstract

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the welfare effects and vulnerability of rural households from the increase in food prices due to the devaluation of the national currency in Golestan province. In this regard, Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QAIDS) was estimated for 14 food groups used by the rural households of Azadshahr County, Golestan province, by separating two groups of rural households with above and below the average income. In the following, in order to determine the changes in the well-being of households, the index of Compensating Variation (CV) and then the index of vulnerability of rural households were calculated. The required information was collected by completing the household income and feed expenditure questionnaire with the help of Golestan Province Health Center. The studied community in this research is the rural households of Azadshahr County, which was obtained by using Cochran's formula, the sample size included 260 households. Then the sample households were selected using the cluster sampling method. The required information was collected by completing the household income and feed cost questionnaire with the help of Golestan Province Health Center in 2017 and 2018. The results showed that due to the increase in food prices, the welfare index of Compensating Variation (CV) in the groups above and below the average income is equivalent to 4603.77 and 5438.99 thousand Rials, respectively. Therefore, the well-being of the studied rural households has been weakened. This result is also confirmed by the vulnerability index, so that based on this index, the level of vulnerability of rural households in households with high and low income is calculated as 20.08 and 51.83%, respectively. Therefore, in order to improve food security and living standards of rural households, it is necessary to support them at least as much as the index of compensatory changes calculated.

Keywords

Food security

Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QAIDS)

Vulnerability

Rural households

Subjects

Agri Eco.

بانک مرکزی ایران. (1400). بانک اطلاعات سری‌های زمانی اقتصادی. موجود در وب سایت https://tsd.cbi.ir/Display/Content.aspx

بخشی، م.، صمدی، م. و برادران نصیری، م. (1387). ترازیابی جایگاه جمهوری اسلامی ایران در منطقه آسیای جنوب غربی براساس شاخص‌های تبیین‌گر آسیب‌پذیری و امنیت غذایی. اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه، 16(3): 21-50. https://doi.org/10.30490/AEAD.2008.58862

خداپرست شیرازی، ج.، اشک تراب، ن. و نعمت الهی، ز. (1397). آثار افزایش قیمت کالاهای خوراکی بر رفاه و فقر خانوارهای شهری ایران. اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، 32(4): 298-287. https://doi.org/10.22067/JEAD2.V32I4.69715

خسروینژاد، ع.، خداداد کاشی، ف. و صحبتی، ز. (1392). ارزیابی افزایش قیمت مواد غذایی بر رفاه خانوارهای شهری ایران. فصلنامه راهبرد اقتصادی، 2(4):93-73. https://econrahbord.csr.ir/article_103228_1f2766f1be132357acd9b9db37b1b1eb.pdf

رضاپور، ف.، دانشورکاخکی، م. و محمدی، ح. (1390). بررسی تقاضای گروه‌های اصلی کالاهای خوراکی در مناطق شهری ایران. نشریه اقتصادی و توسعه کشاورزی)علوم و صنایع کشاورزی(، 25(1): 57-46. https://doi.org/10.22067/JEAD2.V1390I1.8878

سرابی، ز.، انصاری، و.، سلامی، ح. و حسینی، س.ص. (1399). تحلیل اثر افزایش نرخ ارز بر قیمت تمام شده محصولات کشاورزی. اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، 34(2):201-221. https://doi.org/10.22067/JEAD2.V34I2.86055

شعبان‌زاده خوشرودی، م.، گیلان پور، ا.، جاودان، ا. و رفعتی، م. (1401). تأثیر سیاست ارز ترجیحی بر مصرف مواد غذایی در مناطق شهری ایران. پژوهش‌های اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)، ۲۲(۳):۱۵۵-۱۲۹. http://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.17356768.1401.22.3.1.0

شکوری، ع. (1383). امنیت غذایی و دسترسی به آن در ایران. مجله نامه علوم اجتماعی، 24(24): 133-160. https://jnoe.ut.ac.ir/article_10556_1ea419f2adae6115c1d03b480f3e8b9a.pdf

فلاحی، ف.، محمدزاده، پ. و حکمتی فرید، ص. (1392). بررسی آثار رفاهی افزایش قیمت گروه‌های کالایی خانوارهای شهری کشور. مجله تحقیقات اقتصادی، 48(2): 131-150. https://doi.org/10.22059/JTE.2013.35171

قهرمان‌زاده، م.، ضیایی، م.، پیش بهار، ا. و دشتی، ق. (1394). اندازه‌گیری تاثیر افزایش قیمت مواد غذایی بر رفاه خانوارهای شهری ایرانی. مجله اقتصاد کشاورزی، 9(4): 97-119.

https://www.iranianjae.ir/article_16006_dfdee19f5377276d05117f3f10bd683f.pdf

کلاهدوز، ف. و نجفی، ف. (1396). سامانه ملی پایش امنیت غذا و تغذیه در ایران و تدوین اولین نقشهی وضعیت امنیت غذایی در کشور (سمپات). انتشارات وزارت بهداشت، درمان و آموزش پزشکی. چاپ اول.

گیلک حکیم آبادی، م. ت.، زروکی، ش. و رحمتی حاجی‌آبادی، ص. (1396). زیان رفاهی افزایش قیمت در اقلام عمده غذایی کاربردی از روشPanel- SURE در استان‌های کشور. فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی اقتصاد مقداری، 14(4): 53-92. https://doi.org/10.22055/jqe.2018.21297.1590

لیانی، ق. و اسماعیلی، ع. (1394). تعیین میزان آسیب‌پذیری خانوارهای شهری ناشی از افزایش قیمت مواد غذایی وارداتی در ایران. تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی، 7(3):109-127. http://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.20086407.1394.7.27.7.6

لیانی، ق. و بخشوده، م. (1395). بررسی تغییرات سطح فقر و تعیین میزان آسیب‌پذیری خانوارهای روستایی ناشی از افزایش قیمت جهانی مواد غذایی در ایران. پژوهش‌های اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)، ۱۶ (۳): 27-1. http://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.17356768.1395.16.3.3.0

مجمع تشخیص مصلحت نظام، (1382). سند چشم انداز جمهوری اسلامی ایران. http://www.majma.ir.

مرکز آمار ایران، (1390). جدول داده – ستاده سال 1390. https://www.amar.org.ir

هژبرکیانی،ک.، حاجی‌ها، ف. و مزیدآبادی فراهانی، م. (1391). برآورد اعتبار بودجه اجرای سیاست حمایتی هدفمند در تأمین امنیت غذایی. فصل‌نامه برنامه‌ریزی و بودجه، 17: 65-95. http://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.22519092.1391.17.2.3.5

Abdelhedi, I. T., & Zouari, S. Z. (2020). Agriculture and food security inNorth Africa: a theoretical and empirical approach. Journal Knowledge Economics, 11, 193–210. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-018-0528-y.

Akbari, A., M.B. Ziaei & M. Ghahremanzadeh. (2013). Welfare Impacts of Soaring Food Prices on Iranian Urban Households: Evidence from Survey Data. International Journal of Business and Development Studies, 5(1), 23-38.https://doi.org/10.22111/IJBDS.2013.1497

Alaimo, k., Briefel, R.R., Frongillo, E.A., & Olson, C.M. (1998). Food insufficiency exists in the United States: Resultsfrom the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey(NHANESIII). American Journal of Public Health, 88(3): 419-26.https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.88.3.419

Amolegbe, K. B., Upton, J., Bageant, E., & Blom, S. (2021). Food price volatility and household food security: evidence from Nigeria. Food Policy 102, 02061. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102061

Azzam A.M., & Rettab B. (2012).A welfare measure of consumer vulnerability to rising prices of food imports in the UAE; Food Policy, 37(5):554-560. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2012.05.003

Banks, J., Blundell, R. & Lewbel, A. (1997). Quadratic Engel curves and consumer censored regression approach, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(4): 527–539. http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/003465397557015

Benson T., Minot N., Pender J., Robles M., & von Braun J. (2009). Global Food Crisis: Monitoring and Assessing Impact to Inform Policy Responses. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C.https://www.ifpri.org/cdmref/p15738coll2/id/13057/filename/13058.pdf

Banaie, E., Mojaverian, S.M. & Mirzaei, A. (2023).Determining vulnerable households and food groups sensitive to price and income increase from the perspective of food security: Evidence from Iran. FrontSustainable Food Systems. 7:1161040. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1161040.

Brinkman, M., Levin-Koopman, J.,Wicke, B., Shutes, L., Kuiper, M., Faaij, A. & Van Der Hilst, F. (2020). The distribution of food security impacts of biofuels, a Ghana case study. Biomass Bioenergy, 141, 105695https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2020.105695

Carletto, C., Zezza, A. & Banerjee, R.(2013). Towards better measurement of household food security: Harmonizing indicators and the role of household surveys. Global Food Security, 2(1): 30-40.‏https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2012.11.006

Cranfield, J., & Haq, Z. (2010). What impact has food price inflation had on consumer welfare: a global analysis In 2010 Conference (54th), February (pp.10-12, 2010, Adelaide, Australia (No. 58894). Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society. Economic Review, 70: 312-326.https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.58894

Deaton, A. & Muellbauer, J. (1980).An Almost Ideal Demand System, American demand.The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(4): 527-539. https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/top20/70.3.312-326.pdf

De Hoyos, R.E. & Medvedev, D. (2009). Poverty Effects of Higher Food Prices. A Global Perspective. Policy Research Working Paper 4887, World Bank, Washington D.C.https://ssrn.com/abstract=1372964

Derrickson, J.P., Sakai, M. & Anderson, J. (2001). Interpretations of the balanced meal household food security indicator. Journal of Nutrition Education, 33(3):155-60.https://doi.org/10.1016/S1499-4046(06)60185-1

Fathi, F., & Bakhshoodeh, M. (2021). Economic and environmental strategies against targeting energy subsidy in Iranian meat market: a game theory approach. Energy Policy, 150, 112153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112153

FAO, (2008). Soaring Food Prices: Facts, Perspectives, Impacts and Actions Required, Highlevel conference on world food security: the challenges of climate change and bioenergy, Rome, 3 - 5 June 2008. https://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/foodclimate/HLCdocs/HLC08-inf-1-E.pdf

FAO, (2008). Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Crop prospects and food situation, No.1, 2008, Available from URL:www.fao.org/docrep/010/ah881e01.htm, accessed 18 June 2008.

FAO, 2006. Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2006 report. https://www.fao.org/3/a0750e/a0750e00.pdf

Gil, A. I. & Molina, J. A. (2009). Alcohol demand among young people in Spain: an addictive QUAIDS. Empirical Economics, 36(3), 51.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-008-0209-y

Gohin, A. (2005). Decomposing welfare effects of CGE models: an exact, superlative, path independent, second order approximation. 8th Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Lübeck, Germany. https://hal.science/hal-01931548

Gorman, W. M. (1981). A possible procedure for analyzing quality differentials in the egg market. Review of Economic Studies, 47(5), 834-856.https://doi.org/10.2307/2296916

Haggblade, S., Me-Nsope, N. M., & Staatz, J. M. (2017). Food security implications of staple food substitution in SahelianWest Africa. Food Policy, 71, 27–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.06.003.

Headey, D. & Fan, S. (2008). Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices. Agricultural economics, 39, pp. 375-391. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00345.x

Hoddinott, J., Sandström, S., & Upton, J. (2018).The impact of cash and food transfers: evidence from a randomized intervention in Niger. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 100, 1032–1049. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aay019.

Hovhannisyan, V. & Shanoyan, A. (2020). An empirical analysis of the welfare consequences of rising food prices in urban China: the Easi approach. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 42(4), 796-814.https://doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppz003

Ivanic, M. & Martin, W. (2008). Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries. The World Bank.https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4594

Jing, X., Mittelhammer, R. & Heckle, T. (2000). A QUAIDS model of Japanese meet demand. American Agricultural Economics Association, Denver, Colorado, USA.https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.20120

Lafrance, J. T., Beatty, T. K. M., Pope, R. D., & Agnow, G. K. (2002). Information theoretic measures of the income distribution in food demand. Journal of Econometrics, 107(1-2): 235-257. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00122-1

Mthethwa, S. & E. Wale. (2021).Household Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Rural South Africa: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Survey Data. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 4: 1917. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18041917

Nelson, K., & Adams, P. (2011). Reinventing human services: Community-and family-centered practice. Transaction Publishers.https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315128313

Ochmann, R. (2010). Distributional and welfare effects of Germany's year 2000 tax reform.DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 1083. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1735440

Osei-Asare, Y.B. & Eghan, M. (2013). Food Price Inflation and Consumer Welfare in Ghana. International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics, 1(1): 27-39. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.156140

Sahminan. (2002). Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: empirical evidences from some Southeast Asian countries, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Working paper. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1295056

Sheriff,M. A., Lakoh, K. A., Conteh, B. K., &Nkunzimana, T. (2020).Market and welfare effects of food security policies on smallholder rice farmers and consumers in Sierra Leone. Journal of Agricultural Science, 12, 6. https://doi.org/10.5539/jas.v12n6p76.

Seshan, G. &Umali-Deininger, D. (2007). Agriculture and import Liberalization and Household welfare in Sri Lanka.Mimeographed.https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=dAQ34uIAAAAJ&hl=en

Tefera, N., Demeke, M. & Rashid, S. (2012). Welfare Impacts of Rising Food Prices in Rural Ethiopia: a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System Approach. International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE), 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.124861

Van Campenhout, B., Pauw, K., & Minot, N. (2018).The impact of food price shocks in Uganda: first-order effects versus general-equilibrium consequences. European Review Agricultural Economics, 45(5): 783–807. https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jby013.

Verma, J. S., & Sharma, P. (2021). Vulnerability of Small Farmers to High Food Prices – A Case Study of Indian Farmers. Economic Studies journal, 30(4): 74-88. http://dspace.iiti.ac.in:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/6413

Weber, R. (2015). Welfare Impacts of Rising Food Prices: Evidence from India. In 2015 Conference, August, 9-14. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.211901

Wood, B. D. K., Nelson, C. H. & Nogueira, L. (2012). Poverty effects of food price escalation: The importance of substitution effects in Mexican households.Food Policy, 37(1):77-85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2011.11.005

Wossen, T., Berger, T., Haile, M. G., & Troost, C. (2018).Impacts of climate variability and food price volatility on household income and food security of farm households in East and West Africa. Agricultural System, 163:7–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.02.006

Yu, B. You, L. & Fan, S. (2010). Toward a Typology of Security in Developing Countries. International Food Policy Research Institute, IFPRI Discussion Paper 00945. 35. pp. 545-551. http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp00945.pdf