The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of Pistacia vera as a strategic crop in rural areas

Document Type : Original Research

Authors

Assistant Professor of Plant Production Group Torbat Heydariyeh University

Abstract
Pistacia vera is one of the important economic crops of Iran and the world. Climate is considered as the main limitation in plant expansion. In this regard, CLIMEX is one of the most advanced software for predicting the range of distribution of plant species. CLIMEX software was used to study the distribution of Pistacia vera for present and possible future climate condition.There are three groups of geographically restrictive variables for each species in this software: Growth indices, Stress indices, Limiting conditions. Potential distribution maps were prepared for the different continents for current and future climate situations. According to the results, Pistacia vera have the potential to be cultivated in countries such as Iran, parts of East China, Central Asia, the Republic of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, parts of southwestern Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United States. According to Climax maps, parts of China, Turkey, the United States, and parts of Eastern Europe will be prone to Pistacia vera cultivation with climate change. In Iran, it was predicted that the climate change of cultivation and expansion of this crop will be limited in the southern parts of Khorasan and Kerman provinces and on the other hand, western and northwestern regions in Iran will be prone to cultivation and expansion of this crop.The results of this study can be an effective aid in identifying areas prone to Pistacia vera cultivation and its management in the context of climate change for agricultural sector.

Keywords

Subjects


لشگری، ح. و کیخسروی، ق. 1388. مکان­یابی محل­های مناسب کشت پسته در شهرستان سبزوار به روش استفاده از سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی همراه با مدل­های (­بولین، نسب­دهی و روش مقایسه زوجی).  فصلنامه جغرافیا و برنامه­ریزی، 14­(27): 95-139.
Ferguson, L.,Polito, V.and Kallsen, C. 2005. The pistachio tree; botany and physiology and factors that affect yield. Pistachio production manual, 4th ed Davis, CA, USA, University of California Fruit and Nut Research Information Center, 31-39.
Ferguson, L. 2003.Pistachio production year book.Davis University.
Godfree, R.C.and  Murray, B.R. 2014. Invasive Species: Plants Encyclopedia of Agriculture and Food Systems Volume 4  Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved, 66-77.
Gray,S.B.and Brady, S.M.2016. Plant developmental responses to climate change. Developmental Biology, 419(1):64-77.
HashemiNasab, H., Javanshah.H.,Panahi,B.,Ismailpour, A.and Qasemi, M. 2019.Climate change, global warming and cooling needs of pistachio trees: Challenges and solutions, Agricultural Education and Extension Research Organization.Horticultural Research Institute, 102:50-1.
He, S., Worner, S.P. and   Ikeda, T. 2012.Modeling the potential global distribution of light brown apple moth Epiphyaspostvittana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) using CLIMEX.Asian Pacific Journal, 15: 479- 485.
IPCC.2013.Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K.,
Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex,V. and Midgley P.M. (Ed.). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, USA.
Javanshah, J. 2010. Global warming affected some morphological characters of Pistachiotrees (Pistaciavera L.). Scientific Report, 19 pp.
Kamali, A. and  Owji, A. 2016. Agro-ecological requirements for growing pistachio trees: A Literature.Elixir International Journal, 96 :41450-41454.
KhoshhalDastgerdi, J., Mardanian, H. 2009. An Analysis of the Environmental Conditions and Temperature Requirements of the Cultivation of Pistachio in Cower Jarghooyeh. Journal of Environmental Management, 20(2): 41-64.
Koocheki, A.,  NassiriMahallati, M. ,Jafari, L. 2015. Evaluation of Climate Change Effect on Agricultural Production of Iran: I. Predicting the Future Agroclimatic Conditions. Field Crops Research,13(4) :651-664.
Kozhoridze, G., Orlovsky, N.,Orlovsky,L., Blumberg, D.G. and Golan‐Goldhirsh, A. 2015.Geographic distribution and migration pathways of Pistacia–present, past and future.Ecography, 38(11): 1141-1154.
Kriticos, D.J., Stephens, A.E.A. and Leriche, A. 2007.Effect of climate change on oriental fruit fly in New Zealand and the Pacific.New Zealand Plant Protection, 60: 271-278.
Küden, A., Kaska, N., Tanriver, E., Tekin, H. A.k B. 1994. Determining the chilling requirements and growing degree hours of some pistachio nut cultivars and regions, In I International Symposium on Pistachio 419. pp. 85-90.
Lawler, J. J., Shafer,  S.L., White, D., Kareiva, P., Maurer, E. P., Blaustein, A. R., Bartlein, P. J. 2009. Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere. Ecology, 90(3): 588–597
Lawson,  B. E.,  Day,M.D. , Bowen, M., Klinken,R.D.,Zalucki,  M.P.2010.The effect of data sources and quality on the predictive capacity of CLIMEX models: An assessment of Teleonemiascrupulosa and Octotomascabripennis for the biocontrol of Lantana camara in Australia.Biological control, 52: 68–76.
Meehl, G.A., Stocker, T.F., Collins, W.D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A.T., Gregory, J.M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy,J.M., Noda, A., Raper,S.C.B., Watterson, I.G., Weaver, A.J., Zhao, Z.C. 2007. Global climate projections.The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 747–845.
Mitchell,T.D., Carter, T.R., Jones, P.D., Hulme, M., and New, M. 2004. A Comprehensive Set of Climate Scenarios for Europe and the Globe: the Observed Record (1900–2000) and 16 Scenarios (2000–2100).Journal of Applied Ecology,12: 55-30.
NASA. 2015. Global climate change. S. Cole and D. Waller. https://climate.nasa.gov.
Perry, A.L., Low, P.J., Ellis, J.R., and  Reynolds, J.D. 2005. Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science, 308: 1912–1915.
Potter, K.J.B.,  Kriticos,D.G.,  Watt, M.S. and Leriche, A. 2009. The potential distribution of Scoth broom, Cytisusscoparius (L) Link a weed of commercial forestry, pastoral systems.Weed research, 49: 271-282.
Ramirez-Cabral, N. Y. Z., Kumar, L. and  Taylor, S. 2016. Crop niche modeling projects major shifts in common bean growing areas.Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 218:102-113.
Ramírez,F. and Kallarackal, J. 2015. Responses of Fruit Trees to Global Climate Change.Springer Briefs in Plant Science.42 pp.
Ramula, S., Knight, T.M.,Burns,J.H. and Buckly, Y.M. 2008. General guidelines for invasive plant management based on comparative demography of invasive and native plant population. Journal of Applied Ecology, 45:1124-1133.
Rogers, D .J.,  Reid,R.E.,Rogers,J.J.and  Addison, S.J. 2007. Prediction of the naturalisation potential and weediness risk of transgenic cotton in Australia.Agriculture, Ecosystems &Environment, 119(1-2): 177-189.
Shabani, F., Kumar, L.and  Taylor, S. 2012. Climate change impacts on the future distribution of date palms: a modeling exercise using CLIMEX. PLOS ONE, 7(10): 48021.
Shirkhani, H.,  Abedi, B. DavariNejad, G.,Khorasani,R.,SalahiOstad,M.,Morshedlou, M. 2020. The Effect of Iron Chelate on Some Qualitative and Quantitative Traits of Pistachio Trees.Journal of Petroleum Science and Technology, 5 (9): 1-15.
Statistics of the Ministry of Jihad for Agriculture, Horticultural Products .2019.
Sutherst, R.W., Maywald,G.F.,&Kriticos, D.J.2007. CLIMEX Version 3: User_s Guide. Hearne Scientific Software Pty Ltd, 131 pp.
Van kleunen, M.,  Weber, E., & Fischer,M. 2010. A meta- analysis of trait differences between invasive and non-invasive plant species.Ecology Letters, 13: 235-245.
Watt,M.S., Kriticos,D.J. and  Manning,  L.K. 2009. The current and future potential distribution of Melaleucaquinquenervia.Weed Research, 49(4): 381-390.
Yonow, T.,  Hattingh,V. and   de Villiers, M.­2013. CLIMEX modelling of the potential global distribution of the citrus black spot disease caused by Guignardiacitricarpa and the risk posed to Europe.Crop Protection, 44: 18-28.